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HISTORICAL RETURN
To use the average level of performance, consider the exponential graph line (which is actually a line that grows exponentially in linear graphics (as described in the accounting distinction between linear and logarithmic graphs).

This straight line, which is practically the RECEIVE ratio of the historical sequence of Bitcoin, shows that the annual average annual profitability will be overwhelming + 162%.

By taking the current volatility value in 12 months or 79%, and the average yield is +162%, we can do the Montecarlo simulation (we have done 10,000 but we just mentioned 100 to allow the table to read better) to understand how the price Bitcoin can develop in the months and years to come.

OBSERVATION

Whether it is the people of the plan that created Bitcoin, if Satoshi Nakamoto is difficult to achieve or behind the pseudonym he uses to cover the search team, it can be expected that they wait 8 decimals after the coma, which is the price that Bitcoin can achieve, such as structured, he remembers the stratosphere of 100 million rupiah or one hundred million rupees.

ANSWER

The most interesting of these hypotheses, that is, a thousand "lucky" simulations are made, this estimate of return and volatility can be achieved by early 2024.

We discuss simulations and assumptions, which are certainly compatible with the almost absolute Bitcoin expansion as a global payment system, objectively impossible to imagine, but perhaps from a computational and probabilistic point of view.

MAYBE

Looking at the numbers, we can say that there is a 2% chance that Bitcoin will reach a stupid $ 100 million price in 2025.

For Monte Carlo's simulation to be reasonable, we must assume that the growth in the number of users continues to exponentially, as described in the publication. How can we better understand the meaning of "Bubble Financial".

TRACKING

Therefore, I have increased the amount of exponential growth in the number of currencies in circulation so far, with an average growth rate of 1.3% per month (last three years).

To assert that MonteCarlo's simulations with Media = 162% and Volatility = 79% make sense in the long run, it must be said that, by 2025, there are 4,500 million portfolios (something hard to imagine).

HOW TO SHOW

From this simulation, it is possible to extract the possibility of a Bitcoin price higher than a certain value, or, for example, what is the price of Bitcoin with a probability of over 5,000 in July 2018? From the graph we can conclude 98%, while reading it in the opposite way means that today we have about two percent chance that in June Bitcoin price will be under 5,000 US dollars.

GOOD

To avoid being accused of bringing misfortune, on the contrary, what is the probability that the price of Bitcoin will exceed $ 50,000 by July 2018? Based on MonteCarlo simulations, the randomly-designed 4.2% with the above-mentioned features will have a value of more than $ 50,000 in July 2018.

But the most interesting is that there is a 50% chance that the price will rise to over $ 50,000 in September 2023.

They do not take into account what to say for the CONCLUSION

Obviously, the data obtained through random simulations should be considered questionable, but useful for understanding the dynamics, potentials and risks, they offer innovative financial instruments (which I think should be regarded as a kind of "assets to be created in the portfolio, the number of" homeopathic " only).

INNOVATIVE PICTURES

Finally, I can only explain the opening block graph: MonteCarlo simulations in each quarter offer derivation distributions derived from the simulation itself.

To describe it correctly as Gaussians, the exponential scale must be used in abscissa, since the resulting distribution is strongly influenced by the high average level of profitability over the years, which makes the capitalization effect of exponential results well,

I hope you like this position and, if yes, share it with social networks so you can help me to make it stand out.

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